The Revolution Was Televised ... on ABC

1453. 1644. 1917. And now, Halloween 2009.

Like the Byzantine, Ming and Romanov empires, all good things must come to an end. Such was the case for the Trojan Dynasty that has ruled the Pac-10 since 2002.

In retrospect, it was easy to see that this was a rebuilding year for USC. It lost most of its defensive stalwarts, including an entire linebacking corps that went among the first 38 picks in the NFL draft. It lost its star quarterback, who now hot dogs it for the New York Jets. It even lost its offensive coordinator to a rival Pac-10 school.

But because it's USC, it was assumed that it'd go on like business as usual ... until Saturday night, when the Oregon Ducks formally pronounced the fin de siecle with a resounding quack.

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Mike Gundy: Who's Your Daddy?

Mike Gundy may be a man now (at least he thinks so), but part of his everyday challenge is very much the burden foisted upon every boy the world over - making his daddy proud.

Gundy's daddy, metaphorically speaking, of course, is T. Boone Pickens, a Texas oil man. A man who's given over a quarter of a billion bucks to the Oklahoma State athletic program. A man whose name graces the Cowboys' brand-spanking new stadium.

And Gundy has no better opportunity to please his (sugar) daddy than this week.

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Iowa Lacks Style ... And Substance?

After the 2001 season, the BCS forced the computers remaining in the BCS formula to remove margin of victory (MOV) as an element in their respective algorithms. The reason, ostensibly, is that it discourages teams from running up the score since they wouldn't benefit from it.

Well, they should've asked all the pollsters to remove their eyeballs so they can only check the scores in Braille.

We're more than halfway done in the 2009 season, and the BCS Standings provides a clear picture: Style points matter. Why else would Iowa be ranked fourth despite being the near-unanimous choice as the top team by the computers?

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Surviving Trap Week

This week may be the calm before the storm. On Halloween, some of this year's BCS title contenders will be facing virtual elimination games. This week, their goal will be to get by overmatched opponents in the so-called "trap games" without suffering any damage.

Florida has the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party next week (I know the schools now frown upon the moniker, but since when do I give a flying fig about the eggheads and their pusillanimous sensitivities?). Mind you, Georgia is more poodle than Bulldog this year, but the game in Jacksonville is always a big deal. The Gators had better not overlook Mississippi State, though, as it's now coached by Dan Mullen, their erstwhile offensive coordinator. Take this game lightly at your own peril, see Exhibit A: Sarkisian, Steve vs. USC.

Alabama has Halloween off to go trick or treating, but it gets LSU the following week. The Tigers may be the final stumbling block for the Tide's return to the SEC Championship Game and another shot at the BCS title. This week, they welcome Lane Kiffin to Tuscaloosa as part of his ongoing Southern Hospitality Tour.

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First BCS Projection, 2009

A couple of upsets, a few near misses, and a baseball game that just would not end made for an interesting Saturday, the eve of the 2009 season's first BCS Standings.

Florida and Alabama both escaped with tough home wins against SEC foes. Texas held off Oklahoma again. And USC withstood an Irish rally to win its eighth straight against Notre Dame.

Virginia Tech and Ohio State weren't as fortunate. The Hokies are now officially out of the BCS title chase, and perhaps even the one for the ACC Coastal title, after an upset loss at Georgia Tech. Ohio State had a worse loss, getting bested by unranked Purdue at West Lafayette.

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Fat Charlie's Last Chance?

Much has been made about Saturday's game being Charlie Weis' best chance to beat USC since the Bush Push Classic in 2005. The Irish, mired in a seven-year futility against the Trojans, might not get a better shot anytime soon if they don't somehow pull it off this year.

The game is at home - they can let the grass grow. The Trojans have a freshman quarterback and a sputtering offense. Jimmy Clausen is a true Heisman candidate and can't wait to finally pick apart the USC defense.

It all sounds nice and interesting. But it's all hype.

The Irish ain't gonna beat the Trojans. Not now. Not next year. Not anytime soon.

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Final Simulated BCS Standings

Next Sunday, the BCS will release its first official standings for the 2009 season, so this is the final Simulated BCS Standings.

As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings anywhere, including every team that has received any points from the polls and computers.

The final Simulated BCS Standings are a bit of a downer, as world order appears to have been restored. Florida, the consensus No. 1 in the polls, is also No. 1 in the BCS Standings. The Gators will be No. 1 in the first official standings next week as well, no matter what happens as long as they defeat Arkansas. Florida is No. 1 because it has an insurmountable lead in the two polls.

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SEC Bloodbath ... Coming Soon

For the second week in a row, the top of the BCS Standings (Simulated) are dominated by SEC teams. Alabama, LSU and Florida are ranked 1-2-3 this week. This week's standings are just about as good as the real thing, with both polls (Coaches and Harris) and five of the six BCS computer ratings available. Anderson & Hester made its 2009 debut this week, leaving just Peter Wolfe, who does not publish his rankings until the first actual BCS Standings are released (this season on Oct. 18).

Since the computers are not allowed to use margin of victory (MOV) as a component, there's little surprise that LSU is so highly rated, despite two close-calls the last two weeks. The Tigers, in fact, are ranked No. 1 in all five BCS computers. Alabama's high computer ratings also help to keep the Tide at No. 1 for the third straight week.

Florida and Texas, the two teams atop the polls, are dogged by soft schedules and therefore less-than-stellar computer rankings. The Longhorns will have a three-game stretch where they'll face Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State, which starts in two weeks. The Gators will have an opportunity to fix that this week with a visit to Baton Rouge.

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Fall of Troy? Not So Fast

Pete Carroll's motto is "Win Forever." And by and large, that's what he has done at USC since becoming the head coach in 2001.

After starting 1-4 in his career at Troy, Carroll has laid waste to the college football landscape. Since 2002, the Trojans have gone 83-10. The 10 games they did lose were by a combined total of 39 points (by comparison, Cal lost to Oregon by 39 points just last week). During that span, each game USC lost was by seven or fewer points. In fact, the largest margin of defeat in the Carroll era was 11, a 27-16 loss at Notre Dame in his rookie season. Pete has made amends by not allowing the Irish to beat the Trojans since.


But it looks as if USC is at a crossroads. Coming into this Saturday's game at Cal, the Trojans are vulnerable. They may be ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll, but they have struggled offensively with a freshman quarterback. And just this week, they lost running back Stefon Johnson after a freak and near-catastrophic weight room accident.

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The Fatal Flaw of the BCS

What's wrong with the BCS? Look no further than the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS Standings.

WEEK 4 SIMULATED BCS STANDINGS

Click to enlarge

This week's Simulated BCS Standings are just about as good as the real thing, with nearly 90 percent of the data for the actual standings available - both the Coaches and Harris polls and four of the six computers.

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SEC Is So Tough ... Just Like a Duck

Most certainly, I'm not the only one who suspected that Ole Miss was a fraud. Yeah, the Rebels did beat Florida and finished with a six-game win streak last year, but what have they done in 2009 to warrant the lofty ranking of No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 5 in the Coaches Poll?

Well, nothing, really.

Ole Miss was manhandled by Stever Spurrier's very mortal South Carolina team last night, scoring just one touchdown on a long pass play in a 16-10 loss. The score would've been more lopsided, in the Gamecocks' favor, had it not been Carolina's insistence on shooting itself in the foot repeatedly.

The Ole Miss defeat, without a doubt, brought back the oldest canard (or is it a Peking Duck?) in college sports back on the table: The SEC Is the Toughest Conference in Football. I've gone around this several times and really don't want to waste another second on this dubious subject. And delightfully, the Wall Street Journal (of all papers) came to the rescue.

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Poofffffff ... Goes the Mountain West

Well, so much for all that talk about the Mountain West getting an automatic bid to the BCS.

One weekend of upsets restored order somewhat in the BCS universe. Each of the six BCS conferences has at least one team among the top 10 in the latest BCS Standings (simulated). The only BCS buster left standing, for now, is Boise State, who now firmly controls its own destiny for a second BCS bowl berth in three years.

The biggest loser over the weekend is the Mountain West (trumps even USC, but more on the Trojans later). BYU was mercilessly dissected at home by a Florida State team that nearly lost to I-AA Jacksonville State a week earlier. Utah's 16-game winning streak came to an end after its rally at Oregon fell short. As of now, TCU, with two nondescript victories, is the only undefeated MWC member that has a shot at a BCS bowl berth.

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There Will Be Blood ... in the Swamp

Which fantastic finish will punctuate Saturday's bloodbath between Florida and Tennessee?

a) With Florida clinging to a 73-3 lead, Urban Meyer calls a timeout to tack on an insurance field goal as time expires.

b) With Tennessee trailing only 59-0, Lane Kiffin calls a timeout to set up a goose-egg-busting field goal from 52 yards out, only to have the Vols kicker iced by a Meyer timeout.

c) Florida scores with a minute left to go up, 61-7, then surprises Tennessee with an onside kick to get the ball back for more.

d) When asked why Florida went for two at the end of the game, already up 52-6, Meyer replies: "Because I couldn't go for three."

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Gators Free Fall to No. 4

Despite its commanding lead in the human polls, the Florida Gators have dropped to No. 4 in the latest BCS standings (simulated). The Gators are now not even the highest ranked team in the SEC, falling behind No. 3 Alabama. Texas keeps a slim lead ahead of the Tide at No. 2, while USC has ascended to the top spot with a sizable lead.

Let's cut to the chase, what's happening with the Gators?

With four computers ratings (out of six) already available, the placements in the standings are fairly stable. That the Gators are No. 4 is purely the product of their early-season cupcake schedule.

Florida is No. 5 in Billingsley (and typically the most likely to produce an outlier), the highest of the four computer rankings. It's 20th in Sagarin, 35th (and no points) in Colley and 533rd(!) in Massey. In contrast, USC is ranked 1st, 1st, 13th and 12th by those computers, respectively.

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September Wasteland, Cont.

Pro football fans like to thumb their noses at college football for a number of reasons. But when it comes to mismatches, they do have a point.

Yes, they do play those meaningless exhibition games in the NFL (at most papers, including the ones that I worked for, it's verboten to call them "preseason" games), but once the real deal gets started, it's serious stuff. Every game immediately attains a whole lot of meaning, and you have to take even the Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders seriously every week.

Not so in college football. Not in September, for the most part, anyway.

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USC Moves Up BCS Standings

Oklahoma's loss as expected dropped the Sooners out of the top 10, but the team that made the most of the first weekend is USC.

In the latest BCS standings (as simulated by the Guru), the Trojans vaulted past Texas into the No. 2 spot. In fact, USC has a pretty healthy margin on the Longhorns and may threaten Florida at No. 1 with a victory at Ohio State on Saturday.

The Trojans are currently third in the two polls, but are ranked first (Sagarin), second (Massey MOV) and third (Billingsley) in the three BCS computers that have released its ratings. Among 38 computer rankings, USC has a median ranking of 2.

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What to Do About BYU?

In 1984, BYU went 13-0 and won the national championship - the last consensus national title for any school not in the current BCS conferences. What's largely forgotten is that the Cougars played only four teams that finished with a winning record, the best being Air Force's 8-4.

That won't be the case this year.

Should BYU go undefeated this regular season, its 13th game should be for the BCS national title, because its schedule would be worthy for it.

After upsetting Oklahoma, 14-13, at Cowboys Stadium last night, the Cougars should be ranked in the top five of the polls, the most critical element comprising the BCS standings formula. If they fail to crack the top five, then the Mountain West Conference's mounting grievances against the BCS will have the fiercest argument yet.

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No. 1 with a Whimper

The 2009 college football season is finally here, and our undisputed No. 1 team, the Florida Gators, will storm into the Swamp by taking on ...

Charleston Southern.

Let me tell you something about those Bucs. Their school has about 3,000 students, not enough to fill up one section at Florida Field. The private Baptist institution was founded in 1964 and started playing football in 1991. But the most important number for this weekend is not that they're a 73-point underdog (that's hypothetical, since most Vegas books have this one off the boards, so fergettabutit!)

It's $450,000, as in how much Charleston Southern is taking home for this beating, so the school can fund some nice facilities, presumably including a rehab center to mend the wounded warriors in future engagements of this ilk.



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2009 BCS Standings, Preseason Edition

At last, the Guru has published the 2009 BCS Standings, preseason edition. There are a few items of note that may impact the standings throughout the season.

But first, the methodology. This is the third season I'm running a simulated preseason standings, and this model isn't all that different from the '07 and '08 versions. The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and as I noted in painstaking detail previously, this is a no-brainer.

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Ten Years of BCS: 2006

BCS had its dream season in 2005. Too bad it had to wake up for 2006.

Throughout most of the year, it looked as if the BCS would have its first intra-conference rematch, pitting Ohio State against Michigan. The Big Ten's bitter rivals matched each other game-for-game on a collision course of unbeatens while other contenders fell away.

Then on the eve of the 1-vs.-2 showdown at the Horseshoe, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach (and former Ohio State assistant), passed away.

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